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There has been some chatter around here of a Romney revolt: apparently, there had, at one point, been talk that Romney was sent home at McCain's request because numerous state delegations wanted to nominate Mitt Romney for vice president, instead of the now-embattled vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.  Romney is scheduled to speak today about John McCain, change, big government, and McCain-Palin, among other topics.  According to the RNC, about Palin, he will say that:

"Just like you, there has never been a day when I was not proud to be an American. We inherited the greatest nation in the history of the earth. It is our burden and privilege to preserve it, to renew its spirit so that its noble past is prologue to its glorious future. To this we are all dedicated and I firmly believe by the providence of the Almighty, that we will succeed. President McCain and Vice President Palin will keep America as it has always been - the hope of the world."  

Very general and not exactly glowing praise of Palin.

Yesterday, Romney spoke to the Massachusetts delegation about how he is in this campaign for the cause of restoring conservative values in Washington and not because it's about him.

If something were to go down today-and we remain skeptical that it will-it could cause profound change for the GOP in the long run, though it may damage the campaign this time.


Ho Tuan and I have been posting a diary of our on-the-scene RNC coverage on our "RNC Coverage" page.  More entries are there, but here is yesterday's entry:

 

Today was the second day of the Republican National Convention.  And what a day it was.

The day started fairly early as we were scheduled to have breakfast with the Massachusetts delegation at a nearby hotel.  As gobs of rain splattered against the windshield of our friend's car, we looked forward to the day's events, and wondered what the Republican Convention had in store for us.

The Massachusetts delegate breakfast was held in the basement of the hotel.  Although the space was ample enough to hold the entire delegation and guests, it was probably only a little larger than a typical high school classroom.  As the minister giving the benediction noted, "We thank heaven that we could find a room big enough to hold all of the Republicans in Massachusetts."

As we ate the typical hotel meeting fare of eggs, hash browns, and fruit, Mitt Romney arrived to deliver the delegation keynote speech.  Romney arrived in a manner befitting of a popular politician-quick entrance, take care of business, quick exit-and gave a speech that strongly endorsed McCain and Palin, while addressing some sour grapes.  After thanking numerous supporters and donors, Romney started attacking Obama's experience, credibility, and competence.  Some of the critiques were reasoned and to be expected. Governor Romney also used the opportunity to deliver some sarcastic though not very argumentative criticism of Obama for a few laughs

This election race is so close that they can't decide it in the electoral college and decide, instead, to decide the presidency through an ice-fishing contest, right here in Minneapolis.  Whoever can catch the most fish in four days would win the presidency.  So the first day, McCain catches ten fish and Obama catches none.  The second day, McCain catches twenty fish and Obama catches none.  The third day, Harry  Reid comes to Obama and says that McCain is catching so many fish, he must be cheating.  So he encourages Obama to go spy on McCain.  Later, Obama gets back and tells Harry Reid of what he say.  "You'll never believe what he was doing," said Obama.  "He actually cut a hole in the ice!"

The room exploded in laughter and the speech went on.  Romney called Obama wrong on Iraq; he said that Biden has had a lot of experience, but mostly experience with being wrong, and cited the Cold War, the Gulf War, and the surge as examples where Biden was wrong.   "Thanks heaven we didn't listen to Barack Obama and Joe Biden," he said repeatedly.

He also discussed the economy, which was interesting because it is his expertise.  Romney said that the problems with the economy started with the housing and credit crisis, which he presented as a natural event that the Republicans neither caused nor could prevent.  He then accused the Democrats as using economic woes to "appease special interests" that wanted bigger government and higher taxes.  He didn't specify what those special interests were.

Romney talked about his new role in American politics-including how he is constantly humbled, like when he went to the Olympics and thought that fans were taking pictures of him, until he turned around to see that they were actually photographing NBA star Kobe Bryant-and urged Massachusetts supporters to use their time and resources to help in New Hampshire and other nearby states that are more closely contested.

Kerry Healey, the Massachusetts Lieutenant Governor under Mitt Romney who lost the latest gubernatorial race, disagreed, and said that she was making the case to McCain campaign managers to try to win Massachusetts in '08.  There are still many Reagan Democrats, she said, and  they're worth trying to win over.

Talking to many of the delegates in the room, it was a little more doubtful.  It is to be expected that many of the Massachusetts delegates would have been pulling for Mitt Romney.  Most of them were.  While they seemed genuinely ready to do their best for John McCain, their attitudes towards Sarah Palin were different.  Some of them were frank about their reservations.  Others we asked about Palin hesitated for a moment, wore momentary faces of reservation (and sometimes disgust), and then talked about her qualifications.  Some thought it was a brilliant pick.  But there seemed to be an unspoken schism , in which many felt that Romney was passed over because of his Mormon religion.

We chatted energy policy and health care with many delegates.  On the energy policy front, all of them agreed that we need to transition to the next energy economy, but many of them disagreed about what that was or how to get there.  "The oil is there for us to use it," said one delegate.  She and another delegate stated that "there is a theory that oil is being produced right as we speak."  They went on, "why should we disrupt a natural process?"

Most of the delegates thought that it was prudent for the convention to be delayed for Hurricane Gustav.  One lady we spoke with believed that you should always do what you say you will do, or what you're expected to do, and that disrupting the RNC, and not just changing it, was the wrong thing to do.  She was the only person we spoke with who stated this position, however.

We got to interview a young Republican politician named Doug Bennett, who is a candidate for Boston City Councilor at-large.  He hopes to win in 2009.  One of the questions we asked him was how he presents a conservative platform to one of the most liberal areas in the country.  He said that he doesn't emphasize the social conservative platform, and that big government means staying off of your back and out of your life, including whether or not you get an abortion.

The Massachusetts delegation was extremely gracious with us and invited us to some other events.  With a few hours before the convention, Tuan and I went to the Mall of America.  Suffice it to say that it's huge.  Numerous roller coasters.  Numerous food courts.  A freakin' aquarium.  An extremely flamboyant Bruno-like salesman named Fabrizio took Tuan by the hand and asked him "why don't you take care of your nails, is it because you're too lazy or because you don't care?"  Tapping Tuan on the nose, he then proceeded to give Tuan a one-nail manicure.  That nail continues to be very shiny.

From the Mall of America, we took a bus to the Xcel Center.  Trojan had a big truck parked and were having an event to advance their sexual health advocacy.  They gave T-shirts and condoms to contestants who raced to grab a condom, read the expiration date, properly put it on a banana, take it off, and tie it up.  Tuan's new condoms would later spill out of his bookbag during a routine Secret Service backpack check, prompting  glances from numerous guards in the area.

"Big plans tonight?," asked one officer.  "Just be safe," said another.

We got in and found some of the Massachusetts delegates.  One candidate, Earl Sholley, who is running to throw out Barney Frank, was enjoying his time at the convention and was waiting on interviews and press for his candidacy.

The speeches went on as you would have seen them on television, though there were some awkward moments.  There was the moment where the Jo Anne Davidson, leader of the Republican National Committee, mistakenly celebrated the nomination of "Governor Sarah Pawlenty," confounding the presumptive vice presidential nominee from Alaska and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who was her closest competitor.  Next, there was a female firefighter who came forward to give a speech and stepped forward just as President George H.W. Bush and First Lady Barbara Bush were to speak.  That long applause was not for her.

We met numerous luminaries while at the convention, including Senator John Thune, actor John Voight, reporters Andrea Mitchell, Ann Curry, and countless delegates and supporters.  We also met many young Republicans, who carried the enthusiasm and ferocity of their party forward a generation.

We left after an eventful night, missing the GOP Express back to our area.  But after chatting with Wolf Blitzer, we were invited to the invitation-only CNN Grille private party, where we met Tom Brokaw, Chuck Todd, Ann Curry (again) over some burgers and beers and socialized with close friends in the Massachusetts delegation..

We split a ride back to our friend's area with a Massachusetts delegate and pondered the future of the Republican party, in light of the day's impressions and recent events.  While delegates were ready to express enthusiasm for McCain and his pick, we couldn't help but think that the cracks on the surface of the Republican party were deeper than they would look from the outside.  The impression we got from private discussions with tipsy delegates was that the glue that holds many traditionally Republican constituencies together-business conservative, social conservatives, opponents of big government, and the large group of Ron Paul libertarians-is slowly aging and cracking.

We'll update you on today's impressions soon.


DailyKos has an article documenting how Wikipedia user "YoungTrigg" (the name of Palin's son) scrubbed McCain veep nominee Sarah Palin's Wikipedia page.

The article cites an NPR story about this.  You can find the audio here.

According to NPR, about thirty favorable changes were made to Palin's Wikipedia page about fifteen minutes before her name was leaked.  Check out the story, and tell us what you think in the comments.


A Weak Speech from the "Hockey Mom"

Posted by: Nick Krasney in Untagged  on

Did anyone else find her really whiny?  Really hard to listen to?  Unimpressed with her career as a "hockey mom" and small-town councilwoman and mayor?

And what's with the names of those kids?  Track?  Trig?  Really?  Really?

Listening to her speak, I can't help but think that McCain made a major mistake.  Sure,  she might hit some of the key constituancies.  But this shocking and unconventional a pick, especially one that jeopardizes McCain's experience argument, would have had to WOW.  She came off as vapid and underwhelming.

Talking about herself, I couldn't help but be reminded of a game of The Price as Right.  The old, white-haired white-guy standing next to a woman as she prattles off "I'm a mother of five" in soccer mom uptalk.

She's also under investigation by the state of Alaska.  Did McCain miss that?

 


Sarah Palin

It looks like Sarah Palin, the second-year Alaska governor, is John McCain's veep nominee.

Picking a pro-choice, pro-death penality, anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, female governor from Alaska plays to several key constituancies for McCain.  It appeals to embittered Hillary supporters; women; oil interests; coal interests; auto interests; rust belters; religious/"value "voters;  and, perhaps peripherally, minorities.  If McCain can convince voters that the GOP isn't the party of old white men, he might be able to access some new voters.

And I don't now about you, but does this one-time Miss Alaska runner-up look faintly Latina, and have a faintly Latina last name?  We'll see how this plays out.

 Is this who you would trust to run the country if John McCain's age and cancer catches up with him?  I look forward to the reaction from the Obama camp.


Pandering

Posted by: Nick Krasney in McCainAds on

 One of McCain's new ads (one of the few positive ones I've seen so far):

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4KIvRTg6KQ&feature=user 

Methinks McCain anticipated a conversation like this:

A: "McCain has been really negative on the campaign trail.  Didn't he call for a 'respectful campaign?'"

 B:  "What are you talking about?  Didn't you see that one really gracious one where he congratulated Obama?"

A:  "Oh, yeah.  Well, that shut me up."

 


Obama on the Capital Gains Tax

Posted by: Nick Krasney in Taxes on

It looks like Obama has changed his stance somewhat on the capital gains tax.

What is the capital gains tax?   This is the tax on profits in capital instruments (stocks, bonds, etc) that is sold at a higher price than it was bought for. 

What this does is diminish the incentive to invest in capital assets, like stocks, because it means that the US government will be taking a cut of the pie.  How big a cut? Currently, the capital gains tax is 15%.  Obama has talked before about increasing this, perhaps even doubling it to almost 30%.  That's a pretty big slice.

From a CNBC interview:

 BARTIROMO: "How do you plan to change the tax code when it comes to capital gains? How high will that 15 percent rate go?"

Sen. OBAMA: "Well, you know, I haven't given a firm number. Here's my belief, that we can't go back to some of the, you know, confiscatory rates that existed in the past that distorted sound economics. And I certainly would not go above what existed under Bill Clinton, which was the 28 percent. I would--and my guess would be it would be significantly lower than that. I think that we can have a capital gains rate that is higher than 15 percent. If it--and if it, you know--when I talk to people like Warren Buffet or others and I ask them, you know, what's--how much of a difference is it going to be if it's 20 or 25 percent, they say, look, if it's within that range then it's not going to distort, I think, economic decision making. On the other hand, what it will also do is first of all help out the federal treasury, which is running a credit card up with the bank of China and other countries. What it will also do, I think, is allow us to make investments in basic scientific research, in infrastructure, in broadband lines, in green energy and will allow us to give us--give some relief to middle class and working class families who have been driving this economy as consumers but have been doing it through credit cards and home equity loans. They're not going to be able to do that. And if we want the economy to continue to go strong, then we've got to make sure that they're getting a little relief as well."

 The capital gains tax diminishes the incentive to invest.  Remember, investing is tantamount to foregoing consumption today in order to be able to consume more tomorrow.  When people are discouraged from investing, they will invest less, causing less capital gains revenue.  This line of reasoning leads some to believe that cutting the capital gains tax always results in increased revenue, a theory that isn't confirmed.

Although it looks like the tides of primary politics has caused Obama to change his mind,  I must question Obama's concern about "fairness" here when it comes to increasing this tax.  I guess I just don't see what's fair about it.  An Obama administration that intends to takes energy challenges seriously, for instance, will require the country to move towards conservation (to cut demand) and research/production (to increase clean supply).  Each of these require investment.

I don't claim to be any particular kind of expert on this, but I'd be interested to hear peoples' thoughts in the comments.


As we tread swiftly into Convention Season 2008, we should take a look at the complicated issues facing each of the candidates and see how they frame them over the next few weeks.  Here are a few:

1.        The Economy.  The Democrats have been harsh critics of the current economic situation, but many Republicans-no less John McCain-believe that the economy is fundamentally sound.  Currently, the second quarter GDP is being corrected to 2.7% annual growth, up from the estimated 1.9%, but this is largely due to more American exports transacted on a weakened dollar.  While this itself is a good sign-one recalls Mercantilist David Hume's price-specie flow mechanism, in which exports could remedy an unbalanced money supply-one can wonder if the free trade that allowed for this might start to grind with trade frictions when unoiled with low energy prices.  Unemployment is up, consumption is down, consumer confidence is down, inflation is extremely high, the dollar is weak, and domestic demand is weak.  The effectiveness of the stimulus checks is still unclear.  Given today's divided government, it will be interesting to see how these economic problems and questions are spun, and to see the solutions that the Democrats and the Republicans offer.  I hope that, faced with competitive pressures abroad, somebody will talk about education and innovation as the keys to long-term economic growth.  But we'll see what happens.

2.       Housing and Credit.  Housing prices are falling-the Case-Shiller Index, a widely regarded index of housing prices, is down 19% from the peak-and prices are expected to fall another 25-30% over the next few months.  The difficulty to secure credit has left the housing sector in crisis, affecting many types of credit, including student loans.  Falling prices also affect Americans whose principle investment is their house, and affects owners of mortgage-backed securities at home and abroad.  Pay attention at the RNC: one of the accomplishments that Bush and Rove touted for the administration was the number of Americans they put into their own homes.  We'll see how the Bush legacy is affected by the housing crisis.

3.       Energy Policy.  Oil is currently at around $120.  Just a few years ago, when oil  hung at around $20/barrel (in 2007 dollars, which is about the historical norm), oil exceeding around $30 a barrel would have been outlandish in the short term, since oil markets and politics have worked hard to ensure price stability.  Recent technological breakthroughs coupled with high oil prices now make many oil alternatives possible.  This threatens a lot of key relationships for the Republican party (the oil lobby, the automotive lobby) so it will be interesting to see how each party's promise of a new, renewable energy future is pitted against entrenched labor (the Democrats have promised 5,000,000 new green jobs) and entrenched capital.  Since it may be impossible to reach the target of under 550 ppm under the next few decades (to avoid the worst parts of climate change) without significant cutbacks in American output, decreases in energy intensity, and serious conservation efforts, we need to understand how constituents of each party think about the serious efforts required to transition to this century's energy portfolio.

4.       Health Policy.  I'm no expert on this (I look forward to reading Ho Tuan's entries on this topic), but spending is getting into the trillions and prone to increase greatly with the Baby Boomers retiring and getting old.  It is difficult for ordinary people to conceptualize putting a price on human life, or not wanting the latest and (not necessarily) greatest technologies to diagnose illnesses, no matter what the cost.  Given high costs and spotty coverage, healthcare must be rethought. 

Solutions to each of these intertwined problems are expensive and difficult.   We'll see what each party highlights at the conventions.


Obama's choice of Joe Biden as his Vice President reflects a strong long-term strategy that plays to many of the concerns about Obama while keeping with the main themes of the campaign.  In Biden is a long-time Washington fixture who isn't a Washington insider; a politician who is well-known enough to be credible but has a small-enough cross-section to not drag; and someone who is vitriolic and critical enough to add a new voice to the campaign and speak his own mind, but experienced enough not to cause problems.

Biden also brings age and experience.  At 65, he brings the "oldness" the Obama campaign needs-he is closer in age to resemble John McCain's run eight years ago-without being a skeleton.

Obama's life experience in Chicago, Boston, New York City, Hawaii, and Indonesia are well-complimented by Biden's life-long experience in Wilmington, Delaware, which is as rusty as any city out there, making the combination appealing to big-city liberals, rust-belt democrats and undecideds.  It also splashes an acknowledgement of practical realism on fresh-faced Obama's saccharine, exceedingly optimistic campaign.  All of these temper concerns and criticisms that Obama is arrogant or out of touch.

And, of course, Biden himself brings a lot to the table where a lot is needed: is a heavy-hitter in foreign policy and is the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

There are, of course, some drawbacks: the New York Times pointed out that some of his controversy has involved racial insensitivity, including racially charged comments about Obama being "clean" and "articulate," and saying that "you cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent."  This alone shouldn't concern the campaign: it's Obama, after all.  Race won't sink the ship.

Also, his middle name is Robinette.  What's with that?


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 McCain's campagn has come out with this new ad in order to highlight Obama's alleged arrogance, and sarcastically jab at his popularity and bombast as the root of a potential Messiah complex.

For McCain to do this would take advantage of early data that suggests that Obama's displaying presidential qualities this early on in the game causes some to percieve him as elitist/arrogant and would therefore energize them to support McCain, despite the fact that they might otherwise stay home.  I'll post that data when I have time to find it.

But I'm not sure it's effective.  John McCain's name appears at the end of it, but since it is not televised, McCain does not have to endorse this wholly sarcastic web ad himself.  Still, take a look at each of the claims:

  • "A nation healed, a world repaired."
  • "We are the ones we've been waiting for."
  •  "I have become a symbol of America returning to its finest traditions."
  • Obama has no doubts.
  • "A light will shine down from somewhere...you will recieve an epiphany...I have to vote for Barack!"
  • Something about the planet healing.

Then a clip from The 10 Commandments urging to "behold His mighty hand..."

And then it asks if this person "is ready to lead?"

Well, why the hell not?  It's sarcastic, but what about it suggests that Obama isn't ready to lead, even if he is jumping the gun?  Looking at the list, and then asking if Obama is ready to lead, makes me consider the converse of these things.  So McCain stands for "a nation wounded, a world in disrepair?"  Top-down politics?  America not returning to its finest traditions?

Maybe that's why McCain doesn't allow his face in there.  While this may help the short game, it is probably not a good idea for a Republican challenger who is trying to urge change in a different direction to confound proactive politics with arrogance.  That will paint McCain into a sharp contrast with Obama, which would put him in league with an unpopular status quo.


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