Harvard's Election 2008 Blog

As you'd expect after such a surprise pick, I've heard a lot of reactions to the Sarah Palin pick flying around - some supportive, some skeptical.

Most of the  responses seem to focus on Palin's inexperience and how it will affect the campaign.  I've heard people say Obama's inexperience will make it hard for him to attack Palin for being inexperienced (see below), and I've heard people say Palin's inexperience will make it hard for McCain to attack Obama for being inexperienced (see below!).  There is, of course, a big difference between the impact of "inexperience" on the top of the ticket and "inexperience" on the bottom, but McCain's nominee was always going to face extra scrutiny on this count because of McCain's age, something his campaign obviously realized.  And maybe, in Palin's case, the argument's not about experience itself.  Maybe "picturing a young, attractive, kooky, female governor from Alaska who has an accent straight out of Fargo in the White House is going to be a much bigger leap for many voters than picturing Barack Obama there."

To some, of course, all this analysis can be a bit overwhelming.  To quote Palin's father Chuck, "I'd rather go moose hunting than be involved with politics."

Law profs have been among those blogging it up.  Orin Kerr is "cautiously optimistic" about Palin and wonders if a norm is shifting and tickets with two white men are going to become relatively rare.  Jim Lindgren points to an online forum for Hillary supporters who are apparently gushing with support for Palin.  On the other hand, David Post is betting that she'll make a major gaffe during the campaign, and Dan Markel voiced the same thought that's been in the back of my mind: whether picking a comparative unknown might eventually lead to the same sort of backlash that doomed Harriet Miers.  (Choosing a running mate isn't so different from nominating Supreme Court justices or Cabinet officials, after all: it's the first indicator of what personal qualities a presidential candidate might look for in such an appointee.)

Forwarded from the Pforzheimer House email list: Palin wrote an op-ed in January for the New York Times which opposed placing polar bears on the endangered species list. 

And over at fivethirtyeight.com, Steve Quinn muses that Palin might bait Joe Biden into a particularly devastating gaffe in the vice presidential debate, while Nate Silver probably has the quote of the day: "Palin is the most manifestly ordinary person ever to be nominated for a major party ticket."  Whether that will work in her favor (and McCain's) remains to be seen.

 At the end of the day, I still think picking Palin was a smart move, but it's definitely also a gamble.