RNC Photo Recap

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Harvard's Election 2008 Blog

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McCain Leading In Polls for the First Time Since April

Posted by: Ho Tuan in Untagged  on

Ho Tuan

For the first time since April 2008, the RCP average has McCain leading at +1.0. 

USA Today just released their poll showing McCain +10, Gallup has McCain at +3, two other polls have them at a tie. Only the "Hotline/FD" poll has Obama with a lead beyond 1 point.

(September 08, 2008) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

It would appear that the RNC actually succeeded in giving McCain a post-convention bump, despite predictions that he would not benefit from a less-than-thrilling nomination speech. What's unusual is that the Obama camp did not manage to see that huge post-convention bump that was expected from the dramatic success of the DNC. I suppose the McCain camp effectively neutralized the Dem's post-convention bump with good timing on the Palin announcement.

Could this be an "uh-oh" moment for the Obama camp?

As someone pointed out to me, it may be possible that these polls will prove inaccurate come November, as the models many of these agencies have been using undervalue the contribution of youth voters, who may actually be energized enough to Google “Voter Registration.”

And, of course, there is the consideration that it will be the polling numbers in key swing states that will ultimately make the difference.


 

I certainly don't agree with many of Sarah Palin's political views.  However, I do feel images, such as the one above are innapropriate.  Amusing certainly, but innapropriate. Whatever Palin's veiws on sex-ed and the consequences of those views for the public, her daughter made a choice to have unprotected sex.  This decision, no matter how poorly it reflects on her mother, is not an election issue. It is a family issue, which should be delt with in private.  Her mother's life and choices may be fair game, but Bristol Palin's choices and mistakes are not relevent to the election. She should be allowed privacy to deal with her pregnancy and future life as a married teen mom.


As with each day we've started here at the Republican National Convention, Wednesday began with a certain measure of excitement and uncertainty. Excitement, of course, because of the nature of the event; uncertainty, because the Republican National Convention planning committee has been pretty awful about providing schedule details in light of the cancellation on Monday. We started the day at the Mall of America where we ran into numerous Massachusetts and California delegates who were eating and shopping. There are no clothing taxes and it's a big, big mall. It's to be expected.

We then went back to the Crowne Plaza in Bloomington, which is the hotel of the Massachusetts and West Virginia delegations and had become our unofficial center of operations outside of our host's house. As we waited for the GOP Express to take us to the Xcel Energy Center, we got to interview Russ Weeks, who is trying to be the third Republican governor of West Virginia in seventy years. He believes that West Virginia is becoming more conservative (they voted for Bush both times) and is ready for conservative leadership, especially because of the proven energy reserves. "Coal is king in West Virginia," Weeks said.

It was interesting to see the myriad ways that the Harvard name falls upon conservative ears. There is a paradoxical response to the name. On the one hand, Harvard, famous for being liberal and playing host to the "East coast Ivy-league educated elite" is often villainized by conservatives as producing uncommon commentators who are out of touch with real, working people. One West Virginian used the Harvard credential as an excuse to challenge us to produce specific production facts about oil and coal. Suspicions we had about the statistics he was naming turned out to be proven by Googling some of the questions he asked us. On the other hand, the Harvard name commands a certain respect, admiration and generous willingness to help us out. Mostly, our reception at the RNC was warm with a few people treating us just like anybody else at the convention, while others would bend over backwards to help through tight spots and plead to well-connected people to get us in to exclusive hot spots around the convention. Meeting with members of the Texas delegation, dropping the name "Harvard Independent" guaranteed an immediate request for an interview on the delegate floor.

We took the GOP Express to the Xcel Center and started tracking down some of the people we had met previously. The larger-than-yesterday crowd had settled in for the second full day of convention activities, and speaking to people it seemed that everybody had settled into the groove of the convention; it lacked the novelty of the first day.

We walked past a room labeled "Chapel" and decided to go inside. It is a small room with shaded windows, and one thirty-year-old woman with a Fox News hat and McCain t-shirt praying. Looking up, we saw a gigantic wooden cross with Christian prayer material elsewhere on the table. For a Jew and a conservative Buddhist, we couldn't help but think that this was a side of the Republican party that they try to suppress during the conventions. There were no alternatives for other religions.

Exiting the chapel, we told the staff our concern: if there is a single chapel under the big tent that is supposed to be the GOP, there should be a space for people of other religions to pray. The chapel was a sign that the GOP was committed to representing people of faith, but only people of the Christian faith. The chapel staff was trite: "I'm sorry we can't help you."

The ethnic makeup of the convention also merits some words. The smaller speakers of the convention-certain CEOs, some citizens, and others who were given opportunities to speak on the Republican podium-would make it seem like the GOP is a diverse crew of multiracial American conservatives. The story told on the podium is very different than the story told on the delegate floor, or on the stands. Sad to tell, the Republicans as represented at the convention are still very much the white, Christian party. The non-white speakers could as well be speaking in spite of their ethnicity, not because of it and not indifferently toward it.

After watching the Romney speech from the club level, we split up. Nick went off to the Jewish Republican Coalition on the Suite level, while Tuan returned to the media viewing post in the back to watch the Huckabee speech with one of the Massachusetts delegate's wife.

On the way, Tuan went to use the restroom, and ran into to Tom Brokaw taking a bathroom break between broadcasts. Washing hands next to Tom, Tuan, star struck, asked Tom about the Romney speech. The discussion went to the effect of:

"Hello Tom, how's the broadcast this evening?"
[washing hands, gives that signature Tom Brokaw smirk] "Thank you for asking. It's been going well."
"What are your thoughts on the Romney speech?"
"It was a good speech. This will certainly not be the last we've seen of Romney, and he made that very clear tonight." [reaches for paper towels to dry hands]

Huckabee again demonstrated his ability to appeal to working class social conservatives with his usual brand of witty retorts and charm. He reasserted his support for McCain, appealed to some of Obama's own remarks (followed by criticism of Obama's "Excellent Adventure to Europe") and repeated many of his usual talking points from the primaries. Admittedly, not everyone from Tuan's post standing with guests of the Massachusetts delegation (with the media bloggers on the phone typing away on their laptops) were huge fans of Huckabee. The previous night, one of the delegates at the CNN Grille rolled their eyes at the mere comment that he was coming to talk ("Do not get me started on Huckabee..."). Despite that, however, everyone acknowledged what a "swell guy" Huckabee was (the ultimate working man's man). The previous night, Huckabee had been playing at one of the bars in town taking autographs and "chillin'" with the delegates. The response to Huckabee can best be summarized as one of "He won't be President, but gee whiz, he's just such an awesome guy..." The ultimate highpoint of the speech came when Huckabee pointed out that Palin had received more votes running for mayor of Wasilla than Biden had received running for President of the United States, at which point all 20,000 in the hall stood up roaring with applause. Definitely well-received, but the immediate response among from the guests was "Can someone check those numbers? It would be awesome if it were true."

Nick, meanwhile, watched the speech with The Jewish Republican Coalition, a thin coalition of New York and Midwestern Jews who were placed directly behind the TV screen behind the podium, with a blocked view of the speeches and events. One woman was a New York trial lawyer who used to be a prosecutor until she became a criminal defense lawyer and did medical malpractice law. She made it clear that despite concerns leveled about the GOP excluding non-Christian religions at their own prayer sites, the Jews of America must unite to vote John McCain president because he is the only candidate who will adequately defend Israel against its enemies. Barack Obama, she said, has agreed to meet with Ahmadinejad without preconditions, and has supported plans for a divided Jerusalem. She praised Christian conservatives for supporting Israel unconditionally. To her, and the others in this room, the choice was clear, even though there was a palpable grunt when Mike Huckabee, the speaker at the time, said that "the 3 sacred heroes were Jesus, Elvis, and FDR, not necessarily in that order."

For each of these speeches, there were a few characteristic commonalities that created assured crowd reactions. Whenever the speakers played to standard conservative mainstays, the crowd went nuts. There were a few arguments in the typical speech, like how Obama's cutting taxes on families but raising them on businesses has the effect of raising taxes on most families. But other than that, when the speakers weren't telling conventioneers how they get American values and the Democrats don't, they wielded heavy sarcasm to devalue the Democrats and energize the crowd.

During the Giuliani speech, the crowd started chanting "drill, baby, drill," in response to Giuliani's assurances of McCain energy independence. Most (definitely not all) of the Republicans here acknowledged that oil would have to be a bridge to the next energy technology. With "drill, baby, drill," one is compelled to ask exactly what these people have in mind.

Security is no joke to these Republicans. When Giuliani stated that Obama wanted to forfeit to Osama bin Ladin, one delegate shouted "never," and many others followed him. Giuliani's discussions of about Obama's alleged fear of using the phrase "Islamic terrorism" or "victory" in discussing the war on terror provoked similar jeers. In a complete turn-around, the Republicans have gone on the offensive with Palin's experience, and took it as granted that she is a tremendously experienced executive.

We did meet some other cool people: The Daily Show's John Oliver, Conan O'Brien's Triumph the Comic Insult Dog, and others. We also had some interesting conversations with Ron Paul and John McCain supporters who were supporters of their candidates but, when asked, didn't totally understand their policies.

In the end, despite the fanfare of the night, there were many people we spoke with who had private reservations. The Palin speech was very well-received, though many still questioned her policies and experience.

We look forward to the final day of the convention, with the newly built podium, where McCain will accept the nomination.


Nominate me! Nominate me!

Posted by: Jack Kearney in Untagged  on

Locke

The Dummy's Guide to Vice Presidential Nominations

A lot of you seem surprised at the recent nominations for vice president.  I have heard my friend(s) rant away for what seemed like hours about the other possibilities, their qualifications,  how they would sway the "Southern Midwestern, alternative brand to John Deere Tractor owning polygamists whose sons don't play fooseball but do enjoy watching Spongebob on television" vote and so on.  So for all of you who are confused, I am going to explain the nominations.

 The Candidates: 

Obama:

  • Young, glamorous, salt-of-the-earth American image. 
  • Family prevalent in media.  Attractive (at least, more so than McCain).
  • Fairly uncorrupted by politics, idealistic.
  • Inexperienced (politically, not sexually).

 McCain:

  • Lots of political experience.
  • Some form of familiarity with American foreign affairs (war hero).
  • Close relationship with former President (Bush).
  • Quite old.

Who they nominated:

Biden:

  • Lots of political experience.
  • Some form of familiarity with American foreign affairs (Foreign Relations Committee)
  • Close relationship with former President (Clinton)
  • Quite old.

Palin:

  • Young, glamorous, salt-of-the-earth American image. 
  • Family prevalent in media.  Attractive (at least, more so than McCain).
  • Fairly uncorrupted by politics, idealistic.
  • Inexperienced (politically, not sexually).

I mean, really?  Are you kidding me?  They would have nominated each other had they been allowed to.  The only real difference here is that Palin is female, which is obviously a ploy to attract Hillary Clinton's supporters.  Perhaps they can just run a joint ticket?

Oh, and I amannoyed at Palin.  I keep thinking videos with her name in the description are going to involve renowned funny man Michael Palin of Monty Python fame.  He would have been a better choice anyway.

(Michael) Palin

  • Funny.
  •  Fairly uncorrupted by politics, idealistic.
  • Very funny.
  • Attractive (at least, more so than McCain).
  • Interesting.
  • Some form of familiarity with American foreign affairs (Not from this country, does travel documentaries).
  • Hysterical.
  • Has remained happily married for 42 years!  Obama is 47.  Sarah Palin is 44.
  • Performed the lumberjack song, which was very funny.
  • Has an asteroid named after him.  The asteroid may even be older than McCain.

I could go on, but I won't.  I don't think I have to.  I think we can all agree, Michael Palin is the right choice for this country.

 Ah well, as usual, those best suited to lead are not best suited to be elected.  Like the Ruler of the Universe (see the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy...it's somewhere in there).


There has been some chatter around here of a Romney revolt: apparently, there had, at one point, been talk that Romney was sent home at McCain's request because numerous state delegations wanted to nominate Mitt Romney for vice president, instead of the now-embattled vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.  Romney is scheduled to speak today about John McCain, change, big government, and McCain-Palin, among other topics.  According to the RNC, about Palin, he will say that:

"Just like you, there has never been a day when I was not proud to be an American. We inherited the greatest nation in the history of the earth. It is our burden and privilege to preserve it, to renew its spirit so that its noble past is prologue to its glorious future. To this we are all dedicated and I firmly believe by the providence of the Almighty, that we will succeed. President McCain and Vice President Palin will keep America as it has always been - the hope of the world."  

Very general and not exactly glowing praise of Palin.

Yesterday, Romney spoke to the Massachusetts delegation about how he is in this campaign for the cause of restoring conservative values in Washington and not because it's about him.

If something were to go down today-and we remain skeptical that it will-it could cause profound change for the GOP in the long run, though it may damage the campaign this time.


Ho Tuan and I have been posting a diary of our on-the-scene RNC coverage on our "RNC Coverage" page.  More entries are there, but here is yesterday's entry:

 

Today was the second day of the Republican National Convention.  And what a day it was.

The day started fairly early as we were scheduled to have breakfast with the Massachusetts delegation at a nearby hotel.  As gobs of rain splattered against the windshield of our friend's car, we looked forward to the day's events, and wondered what the Republican Convention had in store for us.

The Massachusetts delegate breakfast was held in the basement of the hotel.  Although the space was ample enough to hold the entire delegation and guests, it was probably only a little larger than a typical high school classroom.  As the minister giving the benediction noted, "We thank heaven that we could find a room big enough to hold all of the Republicans in Massachusetts."

As we ate the typical hotel meeting fare of eggs, hash browns, and fruit, Mitt Romney arrived to deliver the delegation keynote speech.  Romney arrived in a manner befitting of a popular politician-quick entrance, take care of business, quick exit-and gave a speech that strongly endorsed McCain and Palin, while addressing some sour grapes.  After thanking numerous supporters and donors, Romney started attacking Obama's experience, credibility, and competence.  Some of the critiques were reasoned and to be expected. Governor Romney also used the opportunity to deliver some sarcastic though not very argumentative criticism of Obama for a few laughs

This election race is so close that they can't decide it in the electoral college and decide, instead, to decide the presidency through an ice-fishing contest, right here in Minneapolis.  Whoever can catch the most fish in four days would win the presidency.  So the first day, McCain catches ten fish and Obama catches none.  The second day, McCain catches twenty fish and Obama catches none.  The third day, Harry  Reid comes to Obama and says that McCain is catching so many fish, he must be cheating.  So he encourages Obama to go spy on McCain.  Later, Obama gets back and tells Harry Reid of what he say.  "You'll never believe what he was doing," said Obama.  "He actually cut a hole in the ice!"

The room exploded in laughter and the speech went on.  Romney called Obama wrong on Iraq; he said that Biden has had a lot of experience, but mostly experience with being wrong, and cited the Cold War, the Gulf War, and the surge as examples where Biden was wrong.   "Thanks heaven we didn't listen to Barack Obama and Joe Biden," he said repeatedly.

He also discussed the economy, which was interesting because it is his expertise.  Romney said that the problems with the economy started with the housing and credit crisis, which he presented as a natural event that the Republicans neither caused nor could prevent.  He then accused the Democrats as using economic woes to "appease special interests" that wanted bigger government and higher taxes.  He didn't specify what those special interests were.

Romney talked about his new role in American politics-including how he is constantly humbled, like when he went to the Olympics and thought that fans were taking pictures of him, until he turned around to see that they were actually photographing NBA star Kobe Bryant-and urged Massachusetts supporters to use their time and resources to help in New Hampshire and other nearby states that are more closely contested.

Kerry Healey, the Massachusetts Lieutenant Governor under Mitt Romney who lost the latest gubernatorial race, disagreed, and said that she was making the case to McCain campaign managers to try to win Massachusetts in '08.  There are still many Reagan Democrats, she said, and  they're worth trying to win over.

Talking to many of the delegates in the room, it was a little more doubtful.  It is to be expected that many of the Massachusetts delegates would have been pulling for Mitt Romney.  Most of them were.  While they seemed genuinely ready to do their best for John McCain, their attitudes towards Sarah Palin were different.  Some of them were frank about their reservations.  Others we asked about Palin hesitated for a moment, wore momentary faces of reservation (and sometimes disgust), and then talked about her qualifications.  Some thought it was a brilliant pick.  But there seemed to be an unspoken schism , in which many felt that Romney was passed over because of his Mormon religion.

We chatted energy policy and health care with many delegates.  On the energy policy front, all of them agreed that we need to transition to the next energy economy, but many of them disagreed about what that was or how to get there.  "The oil is there for us to use it," said one delegate.  She and another delegate stated that "there is a theory that oil is being produced right as we speak."  They went on, "why should we disrupt a natural process?"

Most of the delegates thought that it was prudent for the convention to be delayed for Hurricane Gustav.  One lady we spoke with believed that you should always do what you say you will do, or what you're expected to do, and that disrupting the RNC, and not just changing it, was the wrong thing to do.  She was the only person we spoke with who stated this position, however.

We got to interview a young Republican politician named Doug Bennett, who is a candidate for Boston City Councilor at-large.  He hopes to win in 2009.  One of the questions we asked him was how he presents a conservative platform to one of the most liberal areas in the country.  He said that he doesn't emphasize the social conservative platform, and that big government means staying off of your back and out of your life, including whether or not you get an abortion.

The Massachusetts delegation was extremely gracious with us and invited us to some other events.  With a few hours before the convention, Tuan and I went to the Mall of America.  Suffice it to say that it's huge.  Numerous roller coasters.  Numerous food courts.  A freakin' aquarium.  An extremely flamboyant Bruno-like salesman named Fabrizio took Tuan by the hand and asked him "why don't you take care of your nails, is it because you're too lazy or because you don't care?"  Tapping Tuan on the nose, he then proceeded to give Tuan a one-nail manicure.  That nail continues to be very shiny.

From the Mall of America, we took a bus to the Xcel Center.  Trojan had a big truck parked and were having an event to advance their sexual health advocacy.  They gave T-shirts and condoms to contestants who raced to grab a condom, read the expiration date, properly put it on a banana, take it off, and tie it up.  Tuan's new condoms would later spill out of his bookbag during a routine Secret Service backpack check, prompting  glances from numerous guards in the area.

"Big plans tonight?," asked one officer.  "Just be safe," said another.

We got in and found some of the Massachusetts delegates.  One candidate, Earl Sholley, who is running to throw out Barney Frank, was enjoying his time at the convention and was waiting on interviews and press for his candidacy.

The speeches went on as you would have seen them on television, though there were some awkward moments.  There was the moment where the Jo Anne Davidson, leader of the Republican National Committee, mistakenly celebrated the nomination of "Governor Sarah Pawlenty," confounding the presumptive vice presidential nominee from Alaska and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who was her closest competitor.  Next, there was a female firefighter who came forward to give a speech and stepped forward just as President George H.W. Bush and First Lady Barbara Bush were to speak.  That long applause was not for her.

We met numerous luminaries while at the convention, including Senator John Thune, actor John Voight, reporters Andrea Mitchell, Ann Curry, and countless delegates and supporters.  We also met many young Republicans, who carried the enthusiasm and ferocity of their party forward a generation.

We left after an eventful night, missing the GOP Express back to our area.  But after chatting with Wolf Blitzer, we were invited to the invitation-only CNN Grille private party, where we met Tom Brokaw, Chuck Todd, Ann Curry (again) over some burgers and beers and socialized with close friends in the Massachusetts delegation..

We split a ride back to our friend's area with a Massachusetts delegate and pondered the future of the Republican party, in light of the day's impressions and recent events.  While delegates were ready to express enthusiasm for McCain and his pick, we couldn't help but think that the cracks on the surface of the Republican party were deeper than they would look from the outside.  The impression we got from private discussions with tipsy delegates was that the glue that holds many traditionally Republican constituencies together-business conservative, social conservatives, opponents of big government, and the large group of Ron Paul libertarians-is slowly aging and cracking.

We'll update you on today's impressions soon.


Sarah Pawlenty? Oops!

Posted by: Ho Tuan in Untagged  on

Ho Tuan

Nick and I were observing the Tuesday session of the RNC from the Club Level of the Xcel Energy Center.

Sometime around 8PM, the RNC Chairman (a rather elderly woman) addressed the audience and announced:

"We are holding a convention that will nominate a Republican woman Governor Sarah Pawlenty our next vice president!"

[everyone sitting/standing around us drops their snacks looking puzzled, and then proceed to applaud]

...oops

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DailyKos has an article documenting how Wikipedia user "YoungTrigg" (the name of Palin's son) scrubbed McCain veep nominee Sarah Palin's Wikipedia page.

The article cites an NPR story about this.  You can find the audio here.

According to NPR, about thirty favorable changes were made to Palin's Wikipedia page about fifteen minutes before her name was leaked.  Check out the story, and tell us what you think in the comments.


As you'd expect after such a surprise pick, I've heard a lot of reactions to the Sarah Palin pick flying around - some supportive, some skeptical.

Most of the  responses seem to focus on Palin's inexperience and how it will affect the campaign.  I've heard people say Obama's inexperience will make it hard for him to attack Palin for being inexperienced (see below), and I've heard people say Palin's inexperience will make it hard for McCain to attack Obama for being inexperienced (see below!).  There is, of course, a big difference between the impact of "inexperience" on the top of the ticket and "inexperience" on the bottom, but McCain's nominee was always going to face extra scrutiny on this count because of McCain's age, something his campaign obviously realized.  And maybe, in Palin's case, the argument's not about experience itself.  Maybe "picturing a young, attractive, kooky, female governor from Alaska who has an accent straight out of Fargo in the White House is going to be a much bigger leap for many voters than picturing Barack Obama there."

To some, of course, all this analysis can be a bit overwhelming.  To quote Palin's father Chuck, "I'd rather go moose hunting than be involved with politics."

Law profs have been among those blogging it up.  Orin Kerr is "cautiously optimistic" about Palin and wonders if a norm is shifting and tickets with two white men are going to become relatively rare.  Jim Lindgren points to an online forum for Hillary supporters who are apparently gushing with support for Palin.  On the other hand, David Post is betting that she'll make a major gaffe during the campaign, and Dan Markel voiced the same thought that's been in the back of my mind: whether picking a comparative unknown might eventually lead to the same sort of backlash that doomed Harriet Miers.  (Choosing a running mate isn't so different from nominating Supreme Court justices or Cabinet officials, after all: it's the first indicator of what personal qualities a presidential candidate might look for in such an appointee.)

Forwarded from the Pforzheimer House email list: Palin wrote an op-ed in January for the New York Times which opposed placing polar bears on the endangered species list. 

And over at fivethirtyeight.com, Steve Quinn muses that Palin might bait Joe Biden into a particularly devastating gaffe in the vice presidential debate, while Nate Silver probably has the quote of the day: "Palin is the most manifestly ordinary person ever to be nominated for a major party ticket."  Whether that will work in her favor (and McCain's) remains to be seen.

 At the end of the day, I still think picking Palin was a smart move, but it's definitely also a gamble.


One woman's view of Sarah Palin as Veep

Posted by: Sam Jack in Untagged  on

sjack

My mom: I think it's the worst choice anyone could make for Vice President--ever!

Me: Worse than Dan Quayle?

Mom: Yes!

Me: You know, it's also a little patronizing to think that women will vote for her just because she's a woman--

Mom: I know; "Oh! Oh! I'm going to vote for her because she was on the cover of Vogue!

It's not as though my mom is a big Democrat, either. I wonder how many women are going to feel this way; I expect some backlash among independent and moderate women. 


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